Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  32.9  28.7  24.8  19.1  18.1  13.8  14.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  32.0  39.0  46.0  51.0  44.0  30.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  96.6  98.5 100.5 102.4 104.4 108.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  -6.0 -45.0 -37.0   7.0 -17.0   8.0  46.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        3.0%        2.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 AL072024 240914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.