Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240914 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 41.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 30.2 26.8 21.8 21.1 16.6 15.7 16.2 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 32.0 41.0 48.0 47.0 39.0 23.0 21.0 U U N N N U U U Potential [kt] 101.6 101.6 103.5 105.5 107.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -49.0 -39.0 -21.0 12.0 -7.0 39.0 44.0 U VU VU VU U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 57.0 55.0 54.0 56.0 60.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.14 AL072024 240914 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 41.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.