Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  29.1  24.0  22.0  17.3  18.0  18.4  15.3  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  43.0  46.0  43.0  37.0  23.0  21.0  22.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.5 100.5 100.5 102.4 106.5 108.6 110.7 112.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -51.0 -52.0 -43.0   1.0  -3.0  24.0  24.0  44.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        2.9%        3.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 AL072024 240914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.