Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240915 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.6 24.4 21.1 21.3 17.5 19.0 14.2 13.6 U N N N F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 52.0 48.0 42.0 29.0 22.0 22.0 23.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 105.5 107.4 107.4 109.4 113.6 115.7 117.9 117.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -57.0 -21.0 -12.0 17.0 0.0 42.0 37.0 54.0 VU VU U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 58.0 62.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 7.0% 2.9% 4.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 AL072024 240915 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.