Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240915 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 44.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 66.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 21.6 21.0 17.9 16.4 17.9 18.2 12.2 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 48.0 42.0 36.0 23.0 21.0 22.0 22.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 109.4 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 117.9 117.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -39.0 -13.0 26.0 2.0 26.0 -3.0 26.0 48.0 VU U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 58.0 59.0 62.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.8% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 8.0% 3.4% 5.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 AL072024 240915 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 44.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.