Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.5  19.6  17.6  17.9  14.7  14.0   8.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  47.0  40.0  30.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 117.9 117.9 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   7.0   7.0  34.0  26.0 -27.0  30.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        1.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        1.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       10.9%        6.9%        8.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL072024 240915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.5  19.6  17.6  17.9  14.7  14.0   8.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%