Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.9  18.7  16.0  15.1  15.4  10.9   9.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  44.0  35.0  26.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 116.5 116.5 118.6 120.7 120.7 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -9.0  12.0  39.0  -9.0  -5.0  12.0  45.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        1.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        1.4%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        8.0%       10.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 AL072024 240915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.9  18.7  16.0  15.1  15.4  10.9   9.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%