Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  18.0  15.7  14.1  13.5  13.9  10.9  11.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  36.0  28.0  24.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   9.0  36.0  16.0  -3.0   8.0   8.0  41.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        2.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        2.0%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       14.4%        9.6%       12.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL072024 240916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  18.0  15.7  14.1  13.5  13.9  10.9  11.1  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%