Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.5  16.9  16.1  18.1  11.0  10.2   7.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  25.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  20.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 123.6 123.6 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  26.0   7.0   8.0   0.0  -4.0  75.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.2%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%       15.0%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 AL072024 240916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.5  16.9  16.1  18.1  11.0  10.2   7.2  N  N  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%