Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.2  15.2  16.1  16.6  10.2   8.5   6.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  25.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  20.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   7.0 -14.0 -10.0 -13.0   5.0  66.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.3%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.2%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       14.5%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL072024 240916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.2  15.2  16.1  16.6  10.2   8.5   6.7  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%