Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  14.7  16.1  18.1  11.6  10.5   7.6  11.6  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   1.0  -3.0 -17.0 -20.0  40.0  82.0 105.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.6%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.7%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       17.0%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        6.5%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        6.4%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       17.4%       20.7%       19.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL072024 240916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  14.7  16.1  18.1  11.6  10.5   7.6  11.6  U  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%