Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  17.6  18.0  13.1   8.6   9.1  14.8  19.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  23.0  23.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   5.0  21.0  33.0  64.0  49.0  68.0  39.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  73.0  65.0  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  11.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%       13.1%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        6.3%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        5.2%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       29.6%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.8%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%        9.7%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%       14.7%       12.2%
 65kt / 72h       16.7%       23.0%       19.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL072024 240917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  17.6  18.0  13.1   8.6   9.1  14.8  19.7  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  73.0  65.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  11.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%