Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     49.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.3  10.8   9.5   6.3  12.6  19.4  18.7  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  31.0  17.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 116.5 116.5 118.6 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  38.0  47.0  55.0  58.0  83.0  36.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       18.3%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%        8.6%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h       13.1%        8.1%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%       14.4%       16.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL072024 240917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     49.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.3  10.8   9.5   6.3  12.6  19.4  18.7  N  U  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%