Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  11.0  10.0   9.5  11.6  16.9  16.7  17.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  24.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        128.6 128.6 126.5 126.5 126.5 122.4 120.5 118.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  77.0  79.0  60.0  60.0  58.0 -50.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       15.3%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%       11.9%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%        5.5%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%       11.9%       15.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 AL072024 240918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  11.0  10.0   9.5  11.6  16.9  16.7  17.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%