Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  10.7  10.8  15.8  22.4  20.4  21.0  21.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  23.0  30.0  23.0  12.0  16.0  20.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        126.5 128.6 126.5 124.4 124.4 122.4 118.5 116.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  71.0  57.0  62.0  40.0  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   9.0  15.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.7%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       16.4%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        8.6%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.6%        3.8%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%        7.3%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL072024 240918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  10.7  10.8  15.8  22.4  20.4  21.0  21.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   9.0  15.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%