Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  12.5  14.2  14.8  22.3  18.2  23.9  18.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  29.0  26.0  18.0  12.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        128.6 126.5 126.5 126.5 122.4 120.5 120.5 120.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  54.0  45.0  58.0  -8.0   7.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.1%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       12.8%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        6.9%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        3.1%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        6.6%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL072024 240918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  12.5  14.2  14.8  22.3  18.2  23.9  18.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%