Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  19.1  21.1  24.7  23.8  22.8  21.5  14.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  17.0  13.0  14.0  17.0  17.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        126.5 124.4 124.4 122.4 122.4 120.5 120.5 120.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  62.0  29.0   7.0 -23.0   1.0  -8.0 -16.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        4.5%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL072024 240919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  19.1  21.1  24.7  23.8  22.8  21.5  14.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%