Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240919 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 46.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 26.1 28.4 30.1 25.0 22.9 16.3 15.9 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 13.0 12.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.4 122.4 124.4 122.4 120.5 118.5 120.5 120.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 89.0 68.0 0.0 -5.0 -29.0 13.0 26.0 1.0 F N U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 47.0 45.0 49.0 N U U U U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 9.0 7.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N U N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.7% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 4.3% 3.4% 3.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 AL072024 240919 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 46.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.