Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240920 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 24.0 21.6 23.8 16.9 14.8 8.2 9.3 N N N N F F VF F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 17.0 21.0 24.0 24.0 17.0 15.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.5 115.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 115.5 117.4 111.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 -23.0 -20.0 -4.0 7.0 7.0 -1.0 29.0 N VU VU U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 45.0 44.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 5.9% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 1.6% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 11.1% 7.0% 9.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 AL072024 240920 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.