Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     43.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  21.3  20.6  16.2  12.7  12.0  10.0  13.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  13.0  14.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 117.4 119.4 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -66.0 -18.0  -1.0   1.0  10.0  -2.0 -33.0  17.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  42.0  46.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        3.8%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        1.4%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        5.6%        8.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 AL072024 240920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     43.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.