Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240921 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 22.5 18.7 16.4 15.0 10.6 10.8 14.8 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 14.0 13.0 20.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.5 115.5 115.5 113.5 117.4 115.5 109.8 101.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 6.0 13.0 7.0 25.0 VU U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 42.0 41.0 43.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.7% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 3.7% 1.3% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 10.0% 4.7% 7.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 AL072024 240921 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.