Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082024 240915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  41.9  34.5  29.0  18.2  16.8  10.9  14.6 VU VU  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  21.0   9.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 103.5  83.0  58.8  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  39.0  36.0  33.0  15.0   3.0  16.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  55.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  26.0  24.0  30.0  23.0  13.0   4.0   4.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL082024 240915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  41.9  34.5  29.0  18.2  16.8  10.9  14.6 VF VF  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  55.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  26.0  24.0  30.0  23.0  13.0   4.0   4.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       50.6%        0.3%       25.4%