Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082024 240916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  35.3  30.5  27.3  15.2  13.2  11.6  17.5 VU  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 112.9 106.5 106.5  96.6  60.5  51.7  52.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  30.0  39.0  -9.0  -1.0  34.0 -23.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  25.0  25.0  23.0  13.0   5.0   2.0  -3.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL082024 240916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  35.3  30.5  27.3  15.2  13.2  11.6  17.5 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  25.0  25.0  23.0  13.0   5.0   2.0  -3.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       37.2%        0.2%       18.7%