Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082024 240916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  33.2  29.9  19.6  19.4  14.9  19.5  23.7  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 112.9 106.5 106.5  87.7  70.8  60.5  70.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  10.0  -1.0 -20.0 -12.0  43.0  42.0  -7.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  16.0  12.0  18.0  10.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0 VU  U  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 AL082024 240916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  33.2  29.9  19.6  19.4  14.9  19.5  23.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  16.0  12.0  18.0  10.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0 VF  F  F VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.8%        0.2%        4.5%