Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082024 240916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     78.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  32.2  20.9  18.4  15.3  11.5  17.6  17.6  U  U  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5  91.6  65.8  65.8  55.5  55.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  30.0   6.0 -14.0  23.0   4.0  35.0  35.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  18.0  19.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 AL082024 240916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     78.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  32.2  20.9  18.4  15.3  11.5  17.6  17.6  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  18.0  19.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.5%        0.1%        1.8%