Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082024 240916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40     78.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  23.3  16.9  20.3  14.4  14.4  14.4  14.4  U  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 101.6 101.6 101.6  75.8  75.8  75.8  75.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  29.0 -19.0 -18.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  62.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  23.0  10.0  16.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 AL082024 240916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40     78.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.