Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092024 240923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     81.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.0  20.8  17.5  15.3  15.3  14.8  24.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  124.0 131.0 110.0 109.0 162.0 117.0 132.0  45.0  F VF  F  F VF  F VF  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  81.0 111.0 102.0  73.0  84.0  91.0  77.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0  22.0  69.0  N  F  F  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.8%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       25.2%       40.6%       32.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.5%       19.0%       15.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       16.7%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       16.7%        9.3%
 45kt / 36h       33.5%       58.6%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.6%       15.3%
 55kt / 48h       65.5%       50.5%       58.0%
 70kt / 48h       65.5%       46.3%       55.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       74.7%       68.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 AL092024 240923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     81.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.0  20.8  17.5  15.3  15.3  14.8  24.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0  22.0  69.0  N  U  U  U  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%