Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240924 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 82.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.4 22.0 15.4 16.3 17.6 17.7 17.3 38.3 N N F F F F F U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 132.0 115.0 103.0 110.0 165.0 152.0 54.0 5.0 VF F F F VF VF N U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 94.0 109.0 107.0 92.0 85.0 87.0 88.0 N F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 72.0 66.0 F N N N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 -3.0 7.0 39.0 80.0 F F F N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 3.6% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 27.0% 43.0% 35.0% 30kt / 24h 13.5% 20.9% 17.2% 35kt / 24h 4.7% 18.5% 11.6% 40kt / 24h 1.9% 18.5% 10.2% 45kt / 36h 40.4% 64.8% 52.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 37.2% 18.6% 55kt / 48h 89.6% 56.7% 73.2% 70kt / 48h 89.6% 53.2% 71.4% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 62.5% 62.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 AL092024 240924 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 82.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.4 22.0 15.4 16.3 17.6 17.7 17.3 38.3 N N U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 72.0 66.0 U N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 -3.0 7.0 39.0 80.0 U U U N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%