Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240924 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 82.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 19.1 16.3 13.6 18.5 17.6 28.8 46.1 N N F F N F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 124.0 105.0 110.0 137.0 147.0 149.0 49.0 3.0 F F F VF VF VF N U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 92.7 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 111.0 113.0 106.0 92.0 115.0 69.0 107.0 F F F F F F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 72.0 73.0 77.0 78.0 74.0 66.0 60.0 N N N F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 50.0 111.0 F F N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 2.6% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 25.5% 41.1% 33.3% 30kt / 24h 10.9% 19.8% 15.4% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 16.6% 9.9% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 16.6% 9.0% 45kt / 36h 38.1% 58.5% 48.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 29.7% 14.9% 55kt / 48h 89.0% 54.5% 71.7% 70kt / 48h 89.0% 44.3% 66.6% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 36.2% 49.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 AL092024 240924 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 82.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 19.1 16.3 13.6 18.5 17.6 28.8 46.1 N N U U N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 72.0 73.0 77.0 78.0 74.0 66.0 60.0 N N N U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 50.0 111.0 U U N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%