Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092024 240924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  14.6  14.5  15.3  17.3  17.7  34.4  39.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 138.0 150.0  99.0 112.0  79.0  27.0   2.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9  71.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 109.0 100.0  98.0 124.0  68.0  95.0 119.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  68.0  61.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0   8.0  33.0  84.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       31.1%       47.3%       39.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       25.5%       19.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       22.0%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       22.0%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h       38.8%       59.5%       49.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.5%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h       69.0%       54.0%       61.5%
 70kt / 48h       69.0%       41.2%       55.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       23.1%       42.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 AL092024 240924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  14.6  14.5  15.3  17.3  17.7  34.4  39.5  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  68.0  61.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0   8.0  33.0  84.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%