Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240924 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 84.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 15.4 13.6 17.8 14.7 22.8 41.1 51.6 N F F F F N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 117.0 124.0 118.0 80.0 140.0 46.0 5.0 2.0 F F F N VF N U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 98.5 52.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 110.0 67.0 98.0 102.0 98.0 60.0 116.0 N F N F F F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 80.0 77.0 79.0 75.0 62.0 59.0 43.0 F F F F F N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 17.0 32.0 85.0 60.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.1% 17.8% 16.0% 25kt / 24h 61.9% 73.3% 67.6% 30kt / 24h 41.8% 57.3% 49.5% 35kt / 24h 33.0% 56.8% 44.9% 40kt / 24h 8.0% 56.8% 32.4% 45kt / 36h 56.5% 80.4% 68.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 65.4% 32.7% 55kt / 48h 52.1% 67.1% 59.6% 70kt / 48h 45.1% 56.8% 50.9% 65kt / 72h 55.5% 16.9% 36.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 AL092024 240924 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 84.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 15.4 13.6 17.8 14.7 22.8 41.1 51.6 N U U N U N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 80.0 77.0 79.0 75.0 62.0 59.0 43.0 U U U U U N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 17.0 32.0 85.0 60.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%