Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240925 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 85.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 13.5 18.0 18.1 14.9 35.4 48.5 27.6 F F F F F U VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 129.0 120.0 107.0 89.0 143.0 50.0 2.0 2.0 VF F F F VF N U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3 59.4 34.1 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 70.0 121.0 136.0 67.0 93.0 113.0 33.0 F N F VF N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 79.0 78.0 69.0 58.0 56.0 43.0 F F F F N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 27.0 54.0 81.0 0.0 N N N N VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.5% 30.3% 31.4% 25kt / 24h 75.5% 80.2% 77.8% 30kt / 24h 61.0% 70.0% 65.5% 35kt / 24h 48.2% 70.0% 59.1% 40kt / 24h 24.7% 69.7% 47.2% 45kt / 36h 78.9% 82.5% 80.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 68.9% 34.5% 55kt / 48h 52.3% 62.7% 57.5% 70kt / 48h 38.9% 40.2% 39.5% 65kt / 72h 38.3% 6.1% 22.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 AL092024 240925 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 85.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 13.5 18.0 18.1 14.9 35.4 48.5 27.6 U U N N U F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 79.0 78.0 69.0 58.0 56.0 43.0 U U U U N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 27.0 54.0 81.0 0.0 N N N N VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%