Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240925 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 17.6 20.2 16.2 23.8 47.6 42.2 26.5 F F N F N VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 136.0 99.0 99.0 134.0 47.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 VF F F VF N U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 79.8 36.7 25.8 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 105.0 94.0 114.0 101.0 74.0 46.0 35.0 10.0 F F F F N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 74.0 62.0 54.0 47.0 42.0 F F F N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 6.0 16.0 43.0 66.0 56.0 -4.0 N N N U VU VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.7% 38.5% 42.6% 25kt / 24h 82.8% 85.2% 84.0% 30kt / 24h 71.8% 79.6% 75.7% 35kt / 24h 57.2% 79.6% 68.4% 40kt / 24h 41.1% 78.4% 59.7% 45kt / 36h 74.8% 80.2% 77.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 65.5% 32.8% 55kt / 48h 49.4% 37.4% 43.4% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 15.2% 20.0% 65kt / 72h 17.3% 2.6% 9.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 AL092024 240925 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 17.6 20.2 16.2 23.8 47.6 42.2 26.5 U N N U N VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 74.0 62.0 54.0 47.0 42.0 U U U N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 6.0 16.0 43.0 66.0 56.0 -4.0 N N N F VF VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%