Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240925 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 86.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 92.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 18.2 15.2 13.4 36.1 49.9 30.8 31.3 F F F F U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 95.0 148.0 122.0 49.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 F F VF F N U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 97.3 40.5 23.3 17.6 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 116.0 104.0 90.0 89.0 74.0 101.0 4.0 -14.0 F F F F N F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 73.0 69.0 58.0 56.0 41.0 44.0 F F N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 5.0 14.0 19.0 42.0 64.0 0.0 11.0 N N U VU VU VU N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 57.6% 47.4% 52.5% 25kt / 24h 92.0% 90.7% 91.3% 30kt / 24h 83.8% 89.5% 86.7% 35kt / 24h 79.4% 89.5% 84.5% 40kt / 24h 45.9% 88.1% 67.0% 45kt / 36h 69.1% 76.5% 72.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 61.2% 30.6% 55kt / 48h 33.7% 18.9% 26.3% 70kt / 48h 19.9% 6.6% 13.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.00 AL092024 240925 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 86.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 18.2 15.2 13.4 36.1 49.9 30.8 31.3 N N U U F VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 73.0 69.0 58.0 56.0 41.0 44.0 U U N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 5.0 14.0 19.0 42.0 64.0 0.0 11.0 N N F VF VF VF N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%