Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240925 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 86.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 16.1 15.7 23.5 46.6 38.8 21.6 35.0 F F F N VU U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 143.0 103.0 44.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 F VF F N U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 46.1 9.1 5.8 -0.3 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 88.0 81.0 100.0 91.0 66.0 0.0 21.0 F F N F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 69.0 62.0 56.0 48.0 45.0 46.0 F N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 13.0 27.0 36.0 54.0 83.0 0.0 0.0 N U VU VU VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 91.6% 72.4% 82.0% 25kt / 24h 97.6% 92.5% 95.0% 30kt / 24h 97.3% 92.5% 94.9% 35kt / 24h 97.0% 92.5% 94.7% 40kt / 24h 91.2% 91.9% 91.5% 45kt / 36h 61.3% 55.1% 58.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 34.8% 17.4% 55kt / 48h 13.6% 5.9% 9.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 AL092024 240925 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 86.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 16.1 15.7 23.5 46.6 38.8 21.6 35.0 N U U N VF F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 69.0 62.0 56.0 48.0 45.0 46.0 U N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 13.0 27.0 36.0 54.0 83.0 0.0 0.0 N F VF VF VF VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%