Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092024 240926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  18.2  32.4  44.7  37.6  17.2  25.0  40.9  F  F  U VU  U  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  148.0  60.0  41.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0 VF  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  80.1  58.0  15.7   5.0   5.0   7.4  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 104.0  79.0  97.0 128.0 -19.0  40.0 -10.0  F  F  N  F  F  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  40.0  50.0  66.0  65.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.7%       25.0%       28.4%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       30.2%       31.9%
 30kt / 24h       20.8%       21.7%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h       15.7%       21.7%       18.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       20.8%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        2.6%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL092024 240926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  18.2  32.4  44.7  37.6  17.2  25.0  40.9  U  N  N VF  F  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  40.0  50.0  66.0  65.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0 VF VF VF VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       64.5%        1.4%       32.9%