Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092024 240926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  43.6  47.4  48.6  26.9  26.0  30.8  35.2  U VU VU VU  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.1  28.0   3.0 -22.6 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -23.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 123.0  84.0 137.0  29.0  18.0 -20.0  17.0  N  F  N VF  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  60.0  54.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  N  U VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  52.0  43.0  68.0  -9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.0%        6.6%       19.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 AL092024 240926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.