Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240927 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 84.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.1 47.2 49.2 36.5 27.9 29.2 27.3 27.3 VU VU VU U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 19.8 -8.3 -26.3 -34.2 -35.8 -42.3 -35.8 -35.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 131.0 108.0 157.0 35.0 -10.0 25.0 -28.0 -28.0 F F VF N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 58.0 53.0 46.0 48.0 49.0 46.0 46.0 U U U VU U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 60.0 44.0 76.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 VU VU VU U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.34 AL092024 240927 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 84.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.