Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -75.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.5  31.8  22.5  21.2  27.0  35.6  42.3  42.3 VU  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.7  35.8  35.8  34.2  35.8  35.8  36.6  36.6  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0  38.0  23.0  -6.0   6.0  -1.0 -30.0 -30.0 VF  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  48.0  46.0  47.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  52.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  85.0   9.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.22

 AL092024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.