Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240927 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -50.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.70 F TC SIZE [%] 148.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 27.5 24.4 27.7 33.9 37.8 43.8 43.8 U N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.4 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 40.8 40.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 42.0 8.0 38.0 8.0 -10.0 -19.0 -19.0 N N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 U VU VU U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -8.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.12 AL092024 240927 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.