Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240928 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 88.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 155.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 26.4 28.1 35.4 40.9 42.0 42.0 42.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.6 49.6 57.6 57.6 60.0 60.8 60.8 60.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 22.0 15.0 11.0 0.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 U VU U VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.66 AL092024 240928 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 88.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.