Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102024 240926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     53.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  24.9  24.6  23.6  24.7  27.0  39.9  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   6.0   8.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  61.7  60.4  59.2  49.8  41.8  34.2  27.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -27.0 -18.0  12.0 -15.0  12.0  49.0  12.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0 -19.0 -20.0  F  F  F  F  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.20

 AL102024 240926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     53.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.