Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102024 240926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  26.3  25.4  26.1  31.0  29.7  32.7  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0  10.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.7  60.4  59.2  53.2  42.8  35.8  29.1  22.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -5.0  10.0  15.0  -6.0  64.0  48.0  67.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  49.0  54.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.02

 AL102024 240926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.