Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240926 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 51.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 24.9 30.1 30.9 28.6 37.1 33.2 33.6 N N N U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.4 59.2 53.2 52.0 41.8 35.0 29.1 22.3 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -58.0 7.0 40.0 -9.0 4.0 71.0 37.0 106.0 VU U N U U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 49.0 50.0 57.0 62.0 VU VU VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -7.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 2.0 -5.0 F F N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.86 AL102024 240926 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 51.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.