Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240927 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 49.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 26.5 26.4 25.6 38.6 31.0 31.3 32.1 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.9 40.5 33.8 31.7 20.8 10.2 5.1 0.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 -8.0 9.0 31.0 53.0 49.0 86.0 -2.0 U U U N N N F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 47.0 51.0 56.0 57.0 56.0 52.0 VU VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N U U U N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 0.8% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.54 AL102024 240927 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 49.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.