Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.4  28.1  33.1  36.4  30.3  37.4  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.3  33.2  26.7  20.0  10.4   4.6   0.1  -4.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  16.0  47.0  77.0  30.0  59.0  59.0 -17.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  56.0  57.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  13.0  15.0  21.0  12.0   2.0  21.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        0.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.22

 AL102024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.