Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102024 240927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.50     46.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.8  30.3  38.6  31.7  35.2  43.1  59.9  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.8  16.7  10.9   5.8  -0.3  -5.4 -14.5 -17.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  56.0  71.0  66.0  54.0  61.0  11.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  59.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  14.0  17.0  16.0  17.0   6.0   2.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.74

 AL102024 240927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.50     46.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.