Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240928 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.80 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 36.7 36.7 36.0 39.8 49.5 65.0 65.5 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -5.9 -10.0 -15.3 -15.9 -25.4 -29.9 -33.0 -40.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 38.0 17.0 30.0 62.0 22.0 -8.0 57.0 N N U N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 57.0 59.0 56.0 52.0 50.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 14.0 21.0 17.0 1.0 7.0 22.0 46.0 U U VU U N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.64 AL102024 240928 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.80 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.