Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240928 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 40.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 35.9 35.6 36.2 42.5 59.9 67.1 51.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -10.8 -15.9 -21.0 -25.4 -29.9 -33.0 -37.9 -41.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 32.0 39.0 59.0 48.0 35.0 44.0 47.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 59.0 65.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 14.0 8.0 7.0 -2.0 15.0 37.0 52.0 N U U N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.72 AL102024 240928 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 40.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.