Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240929 00UTC Storm Located at : 41.70 38.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 34.8 35.7 41.2 58.7 67.6 51.6 29.2 U U U VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -6.0 -10.9 -10.9 -14.9 -18.0 -22.9 -26.4 -28.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 53.0 83.0 61.0 29.0 31.0 95.0 30.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 52.0 58.0 61.0 56.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 10.0 0.0 -1.0 12.0 42.0 33.0 19.0 U U N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.42 AL102024 240929 00UTC Storm Located at : 41.70 38.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.